Indians on the Rise but Key Decision Awaits

By: Noel Young

CLEVELAND - Last night’s rare bullpen collapse aside, the Cleveland Indians are entering the mid-point of the season with an MLB leading bullpen and a reenergized offense. 

 After finishing a disappointing June series against the White Soxa game under .500 and 11.5 games from the Twins, the Tribe has rebounded to 7 games over .500 while shaving the Twins lead to 8.5 games and sitting in a tie for the 2nd wildcard spot. A stellar first half by Brad Hand (1.05 ERA until yesterday’s collapse inflated that number to 2.36) and strong performances by Nick Wittgren, Adam Cimber, and Oliver Perez have contributed to an MLB leading 3.31 bullpen ERA. This is particularly noteworthy given the lack of free agency spending following the loss of Cody Allen and Andrew Miller.  

 Even more surprising is that the Indians resurgence follows devastating injuries to their starting rotation, knocking out Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, and Mike Clevinger. Clevinger, after suffering an ankle scare in his return last week, is set to return to the rotation this weekend in Baltimore. However, the statuses of both Kluber and Carrasco remain unknown. Despite these challenges, the Indians starting rotation has managed the 10thbest ERA (4.15) and are 3rd in the league in total strikeouts (483). While Shane Bieber and Trevor Bauer have been solid, much of the credit goes to the youth movement. Zach Plesac, Adam Pluto, Aaron Civale, and Jeffry Rodriguez have made 21 combined starts with the Tribe winning 13. In particular, Zach Plesac and Aaron Civale (both members of the 2016 draft class alongside Bieber) appear to be building blocks in the future. 

 The offense, however, remains a concern. Francisco Lindor, after missing the first few weeks of the season, is having another stellar year. Carlos Santana is having a career year and is on track to make his first All-Star Game. Rookie Oscar Mercado has cemented his place on the roster in only 34 games, batting an impressive .305 and helping stabilizing the lineup in the 2ndspot. Roberto Perez has also been a pleasant surprise, batting.242 and eclipsing his career total with 14 home runs. Unfortunately, outside of these four players it’s difficult to find much consistency. Jose Ramirez, MVP-Finalist for the last two years, continues to struggle in escaping a slump that dates back to August 2018. Questions remain as to whether Jason Kipnis, despite showing some life in June, can recapture his 2016 magic. Will Tyler Naquin, Jordan Luplow, or Jake Bauers step up? Is recent call-up Bobby Bradley, who lead AAA in homers, going to be able to translate that power to the majors? A team batting average of .238 (21st in MLB) is not a good omen of postseason success against powerhouse AL teams like the Twins, Astros and Yankees. 

 With a little over a month left before the July trading deadline, the Indians are in a great position to see where they stand. From June 26, the Tribe will face off with the Royals 11 times, and 11 times against the Blue Jays, Tigers, and Orioles – 22 games against some of the leagues weakest competition. The Twins, however, have a significantly more difficult stretch with multiple series against the Yankees and A’s, and Rays. Most critical for the Indians will be the 3 game stretch against the Twins beginning July 12. 

 If the Indians can cut the gap between the Twins to under 5 games during this stretch, do they go all-in on winning the Central and trade Trevor Bauer for some bats? If the Twins don’t come back to Earth, do they do make the same move in order to try and win a wild card spot? Or, do they take the radical step and punt this year with the intention of competing in 2020? 

 Three things are clear:

• They need to get younger and more offensively productive (fast)

• Pitching is in good shape for the foreseeable future (long term team control of Kluber, Carrasco, Bieber, Plesac, and Civale)

• They have 2 more years to enjoy Francisco Lindor

 Baseball is just too unpredictable to punt a year when Francisco Lindor is on your squad (and Jose Ramirez, for that matter). Winning cures all ills. If the Indians can win against the teams they are supposed to, they still have a good chance of making the postseason and that should remain their goal. 

 PREDICTION: The Indians leverage their depth in pitching and trade Trevor Bauer for big league ready bats at the deadline.